Coordinated research will be largely based on the analysis of a large number of cyclone case studies, that will be identified in collaboration, involving researchers and forecasters from both the eastern and western Mediterranean, giving priority to cases where forecasts failed to reproduce the cyclone properties (e.g. intensity, track or morphology) and/or the associated extreme weather phenomena (e.g. heavy rainfall, wind storms and dust transport).
Research efforts will focus on identifying why the models failed in the reproduction of specific processes, and to gain a better understanding on processes (and their interactions) that are particularly relevant to Mediterranean cyclones but still poorly understood, in a large variety of Mediterranean cyclones. This will be done through the use of coordinated model sensitivity experiments, state-of-the-art coupled models (ocean/chemistry/atmosphere), and observations.
T1.1: Define a set of case studies that are relevant from a forecasting and/or physical processes point of view; share validation tools and collect observations and model simulations.
T1.2: Define and apply model assessment techniques to operational (including ensemble) forecasting for Mediterranean cyclones, including associated high-impact weather.
T1.3: Define, propose and update priorities for improving cyclone prediction at weather forecasting scales.
T1.4: Produce/publish scientific results on process understanding obtained through collaborative activities and submit joint proposals for scientific or services projects.
T1.5: Identify, invite and interact with stakeholders and perform outreach activities to increase public interest in, and awareness of, high-impact events related to Mediterranean cyclones.
D1.1: Report addressed to Action members including case study descriptions and modelling systems and on agreed protocols for sensitivity simulations. This report will also serve as a detailed guide for partners who may join the Action at a later stage.
D1.2: Documentation addressed to stakeholders on protocols and techniques for assessing forecast performance, tailored to the needs of weather prediction centres. This document will be constantly updated with new methodologies.
D1.3: Report addressed to Action members and stakeholders, devoted to priorities for improving cyclone prediction. This report will be constantly updated during the Action and tailored to the needs of forecasters and model developers.
D1.4: Mid-term report of T1.4 addressed to Action members, describing scientific production so far and setting research orientations.
D1.5: Scientific peer-reviewed overview article addressed to the scientific community on the challenges in forecasting high-impact weather in the Mediterranean.
D1.6: Yearly internal report addressed to Action members, open public and stakeholders on dissemination strategies, stakeholder involvement and products tailored to their needs.
D1.7: Setting up a prototype/experimental cyclone-devoted forecasting service with contributions from the Action partners.
